OilPrice.com reports that eleven non-OPEC participants have achieved only about 40 percent of promised cuts, per anonymous OPEC sources citing IEA data. OPEC's own compliance was 90 to 92 percent, and Russia's phased cuts were a major reason for the shortfall.
Weak non-OPEC compliance raises doubts about the durability of the supply cut, which could limit crude price gains and energy costs.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.