Oil retreats as U.S. president signals de-escalation with Iran amid rising output

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-12.2%
• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-1.6%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+10.2%
• Jun 22, 2025Oil Futures Sink As Iranian Retaliation Seen Weak - WSJ-12.2%
• Mar 10, 2026Oil dives, settles down 11% after Trump predicts Middle East de-escalation | Reuters-1.3%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• Jun 23, 2025Oil prices tumble as Iran signals de-escalation with limited missile attack | AP News-11.9%
• Feb 1, 2026Oil settles down over 4% on US-Iran de-escalation, easing supply worries | Reuters-3.1%
• Mar 25, 2026Oil price: WTI, Brent fall as Trump signals Iran talks despite Tehran denial+15.0%
• Jun 22, 2025Oil Futures Sink As Iranian Retaliation Seen Weak - WSJ-11.9%
• Nov 26, 2024​Brent crude oil, silver and wheat prices drop on Middle East de-escalation​ | Levels to Watch | IG International-1.8%