
EUR/USD traded around $1.1220 on Tuesday, retaining most of Monday’s rebound but remaining within its recent range. Lower oil prices and improved risk appetite supported the euro, while traders awaited US CPI data and weighed expectations for further Federal Reserve and European Central Bank rate moves.
Lower energy costs may ease Europe’s import bill and inflation pressures, while changing rate expectations could shift currency competitiveness and feed into import costs. The euro was firmer against the dollar, while crude prices were lower.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.