The euro climbed back above parity with the dollar after US inflation data prompted traders to raise bets on a 100 bp Fed hike. A hike of at least 75 bp was seen as almost certain for the July 26-27 meeting.
Expectations of a larger Fed hike support the dollar, which weighs on dollar-priced commodities, while the euro rebound offers a small offset.
After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.