Saudi Arabian Mining (Maaden) reported third-quarter 2026 net income down 23.7% year over year to SAR 1.7 billion, despite higher revenue and record results in its aluminum and gold units. Phosphate EBITDA fell 83% as record sulfur costs, higher logistics costs, and missing ammonia export sales squeezed margins, even though realized DAP prices rose 15%.
Higher sulfur and logistics costs and disrupted ammonia sales can constrain phosphate fertilizer production and raise costs for fertilizer suppliers. The report points to margin pressure in DAP and related fertilizer supply, despite higher realized DAP prices.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.