Brent crude extended its decline on Tuesday and traded near $92 a barrel after falling around 6% in the previous session. Investors weighed hopes for a diplomatic resolution between the US and Iran against continued attacks on shipping and reports of further strikes in the region.
Peace hopes reduce the risk premium on crude, while ongoing attacks and strikes leave the possibility of renewed supply disruption in the market. That tension supports a bearish immediate bias but limits confidence in further declines.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.