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Morgan Stanley said a deeper decline in oil prices combined with a weaker US dollar could support emerging-market currencies and Brazilian assets. Its alternative scenario assumes Brent falls to $60 per barrel, with the DXY declining to about 98.7 from roughly 102.3; the bank said the Brazilian real could appreciate in that environment.
Lower oil and a weaker dollar could improve conditions for the real and reduce pressure on Brazilian import costs, though the article describes a scenario rather than a forecast. A weaker dollar is generally supportive for dollar-priced commodities, while cheaper crude can weigh on energy prices.
infomoney.com.brEquipe InfoMoneyNov 9, 2026After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 213 past bearish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.5% to +0.9%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
