Global Cereal Production Remains High Despite Decline in Rice and Wheat Output

After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.

• Oct 28, 2017U.S. rice production, consumption and… | PB Commercial-2.3%
• Jul 22, 2021India’s grain production to reach new record highs | World Grain+2.6%
• Mar 2, 2023Global food prices decline further in January-6.9%
• Nov 19, 2025November 2025 WASDE Report is Relatively Quiet Despite Surprises in Production and Exports-1.7%
• Apr 14, 2020COVID-19 lifts prices despite big wheat stocks: USDA - Grain Central+1.6%

After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Jul 14, 2020Global wheat production on the decline - Grain Central+0.4%
• Mar 3, 2023Global cereal stocks falling in 2022/23; early prospects point to a decline in wheat production in 2023 – FAO-2.6%
• Aug 17, 2021USDA slashes global wheat production - Grain Central+0.1%
• Sep 18, 2018Farm production value remains stable despite drought: ABARES - Grain Central+1.0%
• Dec 16, 2020Global wheat prices rises despite record stocks | Miller Magazine+0.7%

After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Aug 13, 2024Despite lower production and inventory forecasts in the USDA report, wheat exchange prices fell-1.2%
• Nov 22, 2019Wheat production, trade rising: IGC - Grain Central+0.6%
• Dec 28, 2021Arkansas pumps up corn, grain sorghum and winter wheat production - High Plains Journal-0.2%
• Nov 18, 2024China’s pork production declines amid weak demand and herd reduction-0.1%
• Apr 3, 2024Anatomy of a fall in global feed production-0.7%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.