
EU soybean imports from July 1 to October 25 fell 2.4% year over year to 3.79 million tonnes. Brazil supplied 2.97 million tonnes, or 78.39% of imports, while shipments from the United States and Ukraine dropped 59.8% and 60.5%, respectively.
EU soybean production in 2026 could decline 20% to 2.4 million tonnes, with drought and reduced acreage weighing on output, although Poland and Germany are forecast to increase production.
Lower EU production and reduced shipments from the United States and Ukraine increase reliance on Brazilian supply, supporting Brazil’s export position and potentially tightening EU soybean availability. The outlook is supportive for soybean prices, though imports overall have so far declined only modestly.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.