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The Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $7.06 on November 9, down from $14.12 on October 27, after President Trump said renewed strikes on Iran were highly unlikely as negotiations progressed. The article also cites an estimated global oil surplus and falling US crude inventories, while warning that renewed Strait of Hormuz disruption could restore a risk premium.
Reduced expectations of Gulf shipping disruption lower the geopolitical premium on crude, while the reported global surplus adds downside pressure. Renewed disruption could reverse that effect and lift oil prices, affecting fuel and freight costs for feed buyers.
cruxinvestor.comRyan CharlesNov 9, 2026After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
