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COP31 opened in Antalya with food, agriculture and health on the agenda as forecasters expect a strong to very strong El Niño into early 2027. The article also cites Middle East-related fertilizer and energy market disruptions, warning that persistent higher input costs could reduce fertilizer use and crop yields.
El Niño threatens future harvests, while higher fertilizer and energy costs can curb input use and production. These risks could support crop and fertilizer prices if they persist.
cgiar.orgIbukun Taiwo, Katherine LeitzellNov 9, 2026After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
After 1,465 past bullish weather events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,079 past bullish weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 1,072 past bullish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (55% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.3%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
