
The euro surrendered gains against the dollar on Friday as risk aversion and a stronger US payrolls report supported the US currency. French fiscal concerns continued to weigh on the euro, while inflation around 4% kept pressure on the ECB to consider another rate hike.
Stronger US employment data can bolster expectations for higher US interest rates and support the dollar, weighing on EUR/USD. Persistent euro-area inflation may limit the downside by keeping the ECB on a hawkish path.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.