European wholesale natural gas prices rose on November 9, with Dutch TTF up 1.4% and UK NBP up 2% in morning trade. Reports of commercial shipping being struck near the Strait of Hormuz revived supply concerns, offsetting relief from President Trump’s conditional pause on further military action against Iran.
Risks to Gulf transit could constrain LNG and gas flows, supporting European gas prices; hopes of de-escalation temper that upward pressure.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.