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Brent crude fell more than 16% over the week to around $98 a barrel as traders priced in the possibility that Trump-Qatar diplomacy could reduce the war-driven oil risk premium. The article says the market is focused on the outcome of the meeting, while OPEC output has partly recovered but Iranian supply remains constrained.
A diplomatic breakthrough could ease the risk of disruption around the Strait of Hormuz and put downward pressure on crude prices; a stalemate could restore some of the risk premium.
ainvest.comCarina RivasNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
