USD/IDR fell toward 18,100 as oil prices retreated after U.S. President Donald Trump said further military action against Iran was highly unlikely if progress continued and the Strait of Hormuz remained open. Strong U.S. jobs data and market expectations of a December Fed rate hike continued to support the dollar, while Indonesia’s central bank was reported to be intervening to curb currency volatility.
Lower oil prices can ease Indonesia’s energy import and fiscal pressures, supporting the rupiah and weighing on USD/IDR. The strong U.S. labor report and rate-hike expectations counter that effect by supporting the dollar.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.