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Middle East producers are cutting prices to attract buyers as oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz recover, with exports averaging 10.3 million barrels per day in October, up from virtually zero in the war’s first month. Brent fell more than 17% last week to around $97 per barrel, while constrained demand and limited refining capacity add to the prospect of a global crude surplus.
Recovering Gulf exports alongside weak demand increase the risk of oversupply, putting downward pressure on crude prices. The market remains exposed to disruption because inventories are depleted and flows have not returned to pre-war levels.
devdiscourse.comReutersNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
