A USDA attaché in Ottawa forecasts Canadian wheat exports in marketing year 2026/27 at 28.95 million tonnes, down 2.8% from the previous season and below USDA’s official forecast. The estimate reflects lower exportable supplies after wheat production fell from 40.56 million tonnes to 36.12 million, while weaker North African demand is expected to weigh on durum exports.
Reduced Canadian export availability could tighten global wheat supply and lend support to prices, though the outlook is partly offset by larger beginning stocks and potential demand for lower-grade wheat.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.