
USDA FAS cut its 2023-24 forecast for Australian wheat exports by 2 million tonnes to 21 million tonnes. It raised its barley export forecast by 0.5 million tonnes to 5.5 million tonnes.
Projected barley production is 10 million tonnes, down from 14.14 million tonnes.
Lower Australian wheat exports tighten global wheat supply and support prices. Higher barley exports partly offset this for barley buyers, which is a bearish factor for barley relative to wheat.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.