
A USDA GAIN report forecasts Australian wheat production at 25.8 million tonnes for 2024-25, below the prior year and 3% under the 10-year average. Dry conditions in Western and South Australia are cited, with barley production steady at 10.9 million tonnes and wheat exports projected to fall to 17.5 million tonnes.
A smaller Australian wheat crop and lower exports reduce global supply availability, supporting wheat and barley prices.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.