FranceAgriMer left its forecast for French soft-wheat exports to other EU countries in 2025/26 unchanged at 7.25 million tonnes and raised its estimate for intra-EU exports to 7.83 million tonnes. It increased projected ending stocks of soft wheat to 3.5 million tonnes and corn to 2.5 million tonnes, while lowering the barley ending-stocks estimate to 1.37 million tonnes.
Higher projected soft-wheat and corn stocks suggest more available supply and may weigh on prices, while lower barley stocks could be supportive. The higher intra-EU wheat export estimate offers some offset for wheat.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.