As of October 28, Argentine farmers had contracted 1.94 million tonnes of 2026/27 soybeans, 53% below the year-earlier level. Sales of the 2025/26 crop and export-license applications were also down year on year, although weekly farmer sales increased.
Slower farmer selling and fewer export registrations can restrict near-term soybean availability to crushers and exporters, potentially supporting local prices and limiting meal and oil output.
After 696 past bullish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.9%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 342 past bullish trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.1% to +2.6%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.