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Crude futures slipped after Trump said new strikes on Iran were unlikely while talks progress. In contrast, physical Murban crude rose more than 3%, indicating tighter conditions for prompt Gulf barrels amid continued shipping risks.
Diplomatic hopes can weigh on futures by reducing expectations of a wider conflict, while immediate Gulf supply constraints support physical crude premiums. The divergence points to near-term tightness despite weaker futures.
gulfnews.comJay HilotinNov 9, 2026After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
