Oil prices recovered from early losses after reports that no ships transited the Strait of Hormuz on Sunday and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis persisted. Prices had initially fallen after Trump said further US strikes on Iran were highly unlikely while talks progress.
Potentially constrained Hormuz traffic and continued regional hostilities sustain a supply-risk premium and supported the intraday recovery. Hopes for de-escalation remain a counterweight to prices.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.