
Brazil’s central bank held the Selic rate at 13.75% on November 4, pausing a sequence of five consecutive rate cuts. The bank cited rising inflation expectations and uncertainty about the fiscal outlook, as the government delayed presenting fiscal adjustment proposals until after Lula returned from an international trip.
Persistently high rates can weigh on credit and domestic demand, while fiscal uncertainty may keep pressure on the real. Currency weakness could raise the local cost of imported feed and fertilizer inputs.
After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.