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ING says Brazil's economy has been hit by inflation and weaker growth following the late-May truckers' strike, with June inflation up 1.3%. It forecasts 2018 GDP growth of 1.5% and inflation above consensus, and expects a hawkish monetary shift in September ahead of October elections.
Higher inflation and political uncertainty can weaken the real and raise rates, which tends to lower the dollar cost of Brazilian exports and shift export-price competition in grain and meal markets.
think.ing.comJul 16, 2018After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
