Chinese buyers have slowed soybean purchases as a weaker renminbi makes imports more expensive, with November arrivals ordered so far at about 2 million tonnes versus nearly 4 million tonnes a year earlier. Importers have also held back on December bookings, while soybean meal prices in renminbi have not risen enough to offset the higher import costs.
A weaker currency raises the local cost of dollar-priced soybeans and squeezes crusher economics, reducing Chinese import demand. That leaves more export supply competing for buyers and pressures soybean prices, particularly for US exporters facing a large crop.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD) moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.