S&P Global Raises Brent Oil Forecast to $105 as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten 2027 Supply

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn - Bloomberg+31.0%
• Mar 12, 2026Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg+23.1%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears+7.5%
• Apr 28, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Tensions Push WTI Near $100 and Brent Above $111, Threatening Global Energy Markets+4.8%
• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-12.2%

After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.

• Mar 2, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Disruptions Threaten Global Supply, Analysts Warn - Bloomberg+35.6%
• Mar 12, 2026Brent Oil Tops $100 as Persian Gulf Disruption Hits Global Supply - Bloomberg+10.6%
• Oct 2, 2026Oil Rises as Mideast Tensions Sustain Supply-Disruption Fears-1.5%
• Apr 28, 2026Oil Prices Surge as Hormuz Tensions Push WTI Near $100 and Brent Above $111, Threatening Global Energy Markets+10.1%
• Apr 1, 2026How the Iran War Is Disrupting Global Oil and Gas Supply-6.6%