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WTI jumped 4.6% to $68.58, its biggest daily gain since November 2016, after OPEC agreed to return to full compliance with output cuts. Saudi Arabia estimated a nominal rise of about 1 million bpd, while Iraq put the real increase near 770,000 bpd.
The OPEC increase was smaller than expected, leaving the market tight and supporting crude prices and the energy costs that feed into feed production.
After 548 past bullish policy events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.7% to +2.1%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 438 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -2.2% to +4.6%), and +2.0% over 20.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 442 past bullish policy events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -2.0% to +4.9%), and +2.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
OPEC's smaller-than-feared supply hike produced a 4.6% jump on 6/22, which sets the start of the window's rally and the base for the 5-day move.
