Diesel prices have risen sharply as Strait of Hormuz disruptions linked to the US-Iran war and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries tighten supplies. Australian farmers are facing fuel costs more than 50% above last year as they begin harvesting a crop forecast to be the country’s fourth largest on record.
Higher diesel costs raise harvest and transport expenses for Australian producers, squeezing farm margins and potentially increasing the cost of moving grain. Continued fuel supply disruption could keep diesel prices elevated.
After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.