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The FAO forecasts global cereal production at 2,999 million tonnes in 2026, down from the 2025 record, with declines across major cereals and a 2.5% drop in rice production. Global cereal stocks are projected to rise by 17.2 million tonnes to the close of the 2027 seasons, largely because wheat inventories are accumulating in Russia and Ukraine amid export disruptions; cereal trade is forecast to fall 3.3%.
Accumulating wheat inventories are bearish for wheat prices, while lower rice production linked partly to adverse El Niño weather is supportive for rice. Lower projected cereal trade and weaker output elsewhere temper the effect of the higher aggregate stock forecast.
urdupoint.comNov 8, 2026After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 88 past bullish report events, Rough Rice moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
