India’s sunflower oil imports are forecast to rise 30% to 3.5 million tonnes in 2026/27 after the government eliminated the basic import duty on crude sunflower oil. Soybean oil imports are projected to fall 10.7% to 5 million tonnes, while palm oil imports are expected to remain near 8 million tonnes.
The duty cut encourages sunflower oil imports and shifts demand away from soybean oil, potentially weighing on soybean oil prices relative to competing oils. India’s large import requirement keeps it an important source of demand for global vegetable oils.
After 351 past bearish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median -0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 513 past neutral policy events, Palm Oil moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.4%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.