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StoneX’s quarterly fertilizer outlook, released October 8, says fertilizer markets may move in different directions through the end of 2026. Nitrogen prices, including urea, face upward pressure from the Middle East conflict, while phosphate prices such as MAP could ease if supply bottlenecks are resolved; the report identifies potash as having the most favorable risk-return profile.
Conflict-related supply risks underpin higher nitrogen prices, while any easing of phosphate supply constraints could increase availability and weigh on phosphate prices. Buyers may face different cost trends depending on the nutrient they need.
soloesafra.com.brSolo &, SafraNov 8, 2026After 76 past bullish report events, Urea moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (49% higher; middle half -2.2% to +2.9%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
