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CRU Group's top ten fertilizer calls for 2022 forecast that fertilizer prices, which rose 100-200% in 2021, will hold high through Q1 and begin declining in Q2 with sharper falls in H2. CRU also expects US and EU sanctions on Belarus potash to disrupt global MOP flows, with a April 1 deadline for BPC transactions.
A forecast of falling fertilizer prices later in 2022 suggests easing input costs for feed producers, while potash disruption from Belarus sanctions could keep potash prices supported near term.
crugroup.comAuthor Chris Lawson Fertilizers Nitrogen PhosphatesJan 10, 2022After 42 past bearish report events, Urea moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.9% to +3.3%), and +2.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
