Saxo Bank strategist Ole Hansen expects Brent crude to settle in a $70–$90-per-barrel range if tensions in West Asia ease, above the $60–$70 range seen before the conflict. He said restored supplies could reduce prices, while rebuilding global oil inventories would help limit the decline.
Easing tensions could restore supply and reduce shipping and security costs, weighing on Brent, while inventory replenishment would support demand and prices. The outlook points to a lower ceiling than during the conflict but a floor above pre-war levels.
After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.