Copom Cuts Selic to 13.75% and Fed Raises Rates; Ibovespa Falls 0.51%

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Sep 5, 2017Brazil: Rate cuts to continue-1.3%
• Dec 18, 2024Dollar index hits two-year high after Fed delivers rate cut+1.3%
• Sep 19, 2019Brazil Cuts Interest Rate to Fresh Record Low+2.0%
• Nov 18, 2016Mexican peso falls despite rate hike, Fed action looms+0.3%
• May 24, 2023Lula’s Feud with Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rates Dilemma to Global Stage+3.1%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Mar 20, 2025Dollar rises as Fed sees no rush to cut rates+0.3%
• Mar 15, 2017Fed raises rate and sees more hikes as US economy improves - Chicago Sun-Times-1.5%
• Oct 31, 2025Rand Stays Weak As Fed Rate Cut Fails To Impress - Finimize+0.3%
• Dec 19, 2018Gold falls as Fed raises rates, indicates further hikes for 2019-0.3%
• Mar 21, 2018Fed hikes rates and raises GDP forecast again-0.8%