Oil falls 13% in a week on election hopes, but analysts see 80% odds Iran fighting resumes

After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.

• Oct 29, 2026WTI Oil eases from highs on Iran peace hopes but remains above $100.00-2.3%
• May 29, 2026Oil falls on hopes for US-Iran ceasefire agreement | Reuters+4.6%
• May 1, 2024Oil falls to 7-week low on surprise US storage build, Middle East hopes-4.3%
• Jun 22, 2025Oil Futures Sink As Iranian Retaliation Seen Weak - WSJ-12.2%
• Feb 28, 2025Oil falls on White House spat, tariffs, Iraq exports - The Business Times-5.7%

After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.

• May 29, 2026Oil falls on hopes for US-Iran ceasefire agreement | Reuters+2.5%
• May 1, 2024Oil falls to 7-week low on surprise US storage build, Middle East hopes-5.8%
• Jun 24, 2019U.S. oil ends higher, but Brent falls as Trump administration announces additional Iran sanctions - MarketWatch+2.2%
• Jun 22, 2025Oil Futures Sink As Iranian Retaliation Seen Weak - WSJ-11.9%
• Feb 28, 2025Oil falls on White House spat, tariffs, Iraq exports - The Business Times-5.7%