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Rabobank's Dairy Quarterly reports that milk collections in the Big Seven exporting regions were nearly flat year-on-year in Q4 2018, with US growth at about 1%. Output is falling in the EU and Australia, where weather hit feed quality, while Brazil and New Zealand grew before stalling in February 2019.
Rabobank expects a challenging production environment to continue through the first half of 2019.
Stalling milk output with weak global supply supports dairy prices and raises the cost of dairy-based feed ingredients for buyers. Tight milk supply tends to keep farmgate prices firm.
dairyindustries.comApr 2, 2019After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rabobank's outlook for constrained milk output in major exporting regions through H1 2019 is a bullish supply signal released on the move date.
