
The National Milk Producers Federation's chief economist says the dairy industry is rebalancing after USDA's February supply and demand report. USDA lowered 2018 and 2019 milk production on fewer dairy cows and slower per-cow gains, and raised the 2019 all-milk price forecast to $16.90 to $17.65 per cwt.
A smaller cow herd and lower milk output forecasts point to tighter supply and firmer milk prices. Higher butter and nonfat dry milk price forecasts support the Class IV outlook.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.