
USDA FAS reports that EU27 cow milk output has declined since 2021 and is forecast at 143.9 million tonnes for 2023, down 0.55%. Cheese production is expected to rise to 10.5 million tonnes at the expense of butter, NFDM and whole milk powder.
Shrinking EU milk supply tightens global dairy availability and supports prices for competing exporters, though the shift toward cheese limits gains in butter and powders.
After 237 past bullish report events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.6%), and +1.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.