
Brent settled at US$98.32 and WTI at US$90.83 after weekly declines of about 17% and 13%, respectively. Hopes for reduced US-Iran tensions and increased global crude supply weighed on prices, while risks to shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remained.
Expectations of easing geopolitical risk and more available crude reduce the perceived risk of supply disruption, pressuring oil prices; continued Hormuz danger could limit further declines.
After 250 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -3.1% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -7.9% to +1.6%), and -5.5% over 20.
After 255 past bearish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.4% over 5 sessions (31% higher; middle half -7.0% to +1.7%), and -5.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.