Industry experts at a meeting organized by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation called for abolishing fertilizer export tariffs. Representatives of China’s phosphate and nitrogen fertilizer associations argued that higher production costs after the withdrawal of preferential policies and the reintroduction of VAT made the tariffs unnecessary; the article also reports a proposal to remove urea export tariffs.
If adopted, removing the tariffs could increase Chinese fertilizer export availability and put downward pressure on international prices, while reducing supply retained for the domestic market. The proposals have not been reported as government policy changes.
After 34 past bearish policy events, Urea moved a median -0.8% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.3% to +1.8%), and -4.5% over 20.
After 50 past bearish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.9% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.1% to +1.6%), and +0.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.