Attacks by Russia and Ukraine have sharply disrupted Black Sea grain shipping: the article says less than 10% of Russian grain now leaves through the sea, compared with about 70% a year earlier, while Ukrainian shipments have fallen to their lowest level in years. Higher vessel fees and insurance costs are also raising transport costs, with attacks reaching waters near Romania and Bulgaria.
Reduced Black Sea export capacity can tighten grain availability in importing markets and raise freight and insurance costs, supporting delivered grain prices. The article notes that corn prices are already near a three-year high, while wheat has moved in the opposite direction recently.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.