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US corn basis premiums surged in the Gulf and Pacific Northwest as buyers turned to US supply after Russia's invasion shut Ukrainian ports and the Black Sea and Azov Sea shipping. Gulf and PNW offers rose further, with Brazil and Argentina crop concerns adding to demand.
Export demand shifting to US corn lifts basis and FOB prices, raising costs for feed buyers and supporting US corn values.
After 323 past bullish geopolitics events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.9%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.