
India’s nitrogen fertilizer imports rose 52% in the first half of 2026 year over year, adding more than 1.1 million tonnes, according to an IFPRI study. Disrupted Gulf LNG exports reduced gas availability for Indian fertilizer plants, prompting the country to source more fertilizer from China, Egypt, Vietnam, and Russia.
Lower domestic production has increased India’s import demand, tightening the traded supply available to other buyers and supporting nitrogen fertilizer prices. The disruption links fertilizer availability and costs to LNG supply through the Strait of Hormuz.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.