
Brazil’s October trade surplus reached $9.3 billion, nearly 40% above a year earlier and above analysts’ expectations. Crude oil exports hit records in both value, at $8.5 billion, and volume, at 14.49 million metric tons, as output and global prices rose.
Record Brazilian export volumes add crude supply to the global market, which can weigh on oil prices if sustained. The larger trade surplus may also provide some support to Brazil’s external accounts and the real.
After 80 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (30% higher; middle half -6.9% to +0.8%), and -1.5% over 20.
After 56 past bearish trade events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -5.6% over 5 sessions (20% higher; middle half -9.0% to -1.7%), and -4.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.