Dollar rises to R$5.51 on strong payrolls, with Lula still lacking a fiscal adjustment

After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.

• Dec 9, 2021Strong dollar weighs on Latin American currencies | Financial Post+3.1%
• Apr 25, 2023EMERGING MARKETS-Mexico's peso falls on growth worries, stronger dollar-1.3%
• Oct 30, 2025Dollar rises against the real, still influenced by Fed decision | Brasil 247+0.2%
• Nov 16, 2016Dollar bulls have room to run on Trump win, euro could reach parity with dollar-2.6%
• May 24, 2023Lula’s Feud with Brazil’s Central Bank Raises Rates Dilemma to Global Stage+3.1%

After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.

• Nov 1, 2017Dollar rises on strong U.S. data, Fed signals | Reuters+0.1%
• Oct 2, 2023Oil tumbles 2% to 3-week low on strong dollar, profit taking+0.9%
• Aug 31, 2022‘King dollar’ surges as Fed presses ahead with rate rises+0.9%
• Apr 30, 2018US Dollar To Australian Dollar (USD/AUD) Exchange Rate Rises 0.5% On US Spending Stats+1.0%
• Nov 17, 2022Dollar rises with bets on hawkish Fed; sterling drops | Reuters+0.4%