
Oil prices recovered late Friday, with Brent near $98 and WTI around $91, even as both benchmarks recorded large weekly losses. Traders monitored renewed US-Iran tensions and attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, alongside the possibility of a diplomatic breakthrough.
The attacks heighten the risk of disrupted oil shipments and support prices, while diplomacy could reduce the risk premium. Crude volatility can feed through to fuel and freight costs for feed buyers.
After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.