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India’s milk-production growth is projected to slow to 2.5% in 2026 and 2% in 2027, with tightening feed and fodder supplies and weaker animal productivity linked to El Niño-induced drought. Dairy butter prices rose 54.3% from October 2023 to October 2026, while skimmed milk powder prices increased 18%, reflecting a tighter supply of milk fat than of non-fat solids.
Drought-related feed constraints and slower production growth can limit milk and butterfat availability, supporting dairy-fat prices and raising the cost of ghee. The reported divergence between butter and skimmed milk powder points to particular firmness in fat-linked dairy markets.
indianexpress.comHarish DamodaranNov 7, 2026After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
