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A Price Futures Group analyst says US grain markets have shifted from a demand-driven to a supply-driven bull market as South American harvests begin. South American corn and soybeans are cheaper and taking US export share, while Argentina is dry and northern Brazil is too wet.
Cheaper South American supplies cap US export demand, but low US stocks keep the price floor firm until the new US crop arrives.
iowaagribusinessradionetwork.comRiley SmithMar 4, 2021After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
