Analysts Jim McCormick of Allendale and Brian Grossman of Zaner Group debate whether corn and soybeans have posted their 2018 highs. McCormick fears a full trade war with China would be negative but expects one more rally, citing tight world corn stocks, while Grossman sees fundamentals supporting corn once trade rhetoric fades.
Tight world corn stocks support prices, but tariff escalation with China poses downside risk to US corn and soybean futures and export demand.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
After 250 past neutral trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.